That, combined with a chronically weak NSW housing market, has seen
the company's share price hit multi-year lows. But Boral doesn't
just rely on housing demand to make money - the company is also
exposed to the boom in infrastructure spending, most notably in
Australia.
Boral is an integrated construction materials and building
products company. Its main geographic presence is in Australia,
which represents 75 per cent of total revenue. Boral also has
operations in the US and Asia.
Boral's business model is quite simple. The company's quarry
assets are the source of its raw materials - hard rock, sand and
gravel, limestone and shale, and clay. These are processed into
cement, concrete, asphalt and bricks for use in road infrastructure
and housing construction. Boral also owns a fleet of about 400
vehicles, providing transport and logistics solutions.
The outlook Boral's prospects are mixed. The company relies
heavily on the NSW housing market, which remains a basket case in
terms of bringing new supply to market. Housing starts have fallen
below expected levels and have forced Boral to mothball some brick
manufacturing plants in the state.
There is also evidence that the US housing downturn will be
particularly severe and, with a glut of housing in key regions, the
normal cyclical bounce back may be some time away.
On a positive note, Boral's exposure to the booming
infrastructure market should offset housing-related weakness. Boral
supplies aggregates (rocks, sand etc), cement and concrete for new
roads and construction projects. For example, the company had a
hand in Melbourne's huge EastLink project. With politicians showing
no sign of doing any intelligent long-term public transport
planning, more road infrastructure looks certain.
The key for Boral in this area will be pricing power. Boral is
in some ways a miner (it digs rocks out of the ground) and costs
are rising strongly in this area. Passing these costs on is
obviously crucial for maintaining profit margins. Price Boral is a
cyclical company, which is clearly demonstrated by the company's
erratic share price performance over the past five years. In
February this year Boral hit a low - below $5.50 - and has since
rallied back to above $6.
We anticipate further volatility in the months ahead as
uncertainty over the timing of the next cyclical upswing
continues.
Worth buying? Boral has a very strong position in its markets
but the capital intensity of the business means the company
struggles to generate a healthy return on equity.
In downturns, the return on equity dips to single digits. Given
the cyclical nature of the stock, Boral is best purchased in times
such as these, although the ongoing credit crisis presents a fly in
the ointment.
Tighter credit and indebted household sectors in Australia and
the US suggest the next upswing will be far from robust so we feel
the risk-reward characteristics are not strong enough to warrant
buying around current levels.