Pity the poor "mum and dad" shareholders, those conservative
investors who acquired their holdings in some of the big floats and
privatisations of the 1990s and have held onto their shares
resolutely since. Recent share-price volatility has not been kind
to them and chances are their shares have underperformed even the
falling market.
Nevertheless, the outlook is not all bad. Some experts believe
it is exactly these shares that will lead the market back up, once
a recovery gets under way.
The term "mum and dad investor" is based on the Mums and Dads
Index, an inspired creation of Commonwealth Securities. This is an
index of equities such as Woolworths, AMP and Commonwealth Bank of
Australia that were created in a series of major floats,
privatisations or demutualisations.
These were the first stocks many investors had owned, exploding
share ownership in Australia during the 1990s.
The listing of the first tranche of Telstra in 1997 created
559,000 first-time shareholders and the AMP demutualisation in 1998
led to a further 730,000.
Many of these investors have held their shares. Surveys by the
Australian Securities Exchange have found that in many cases these
are the only shares they own. In the latest survey, in November
2006, 20 per cent of all Australian shareholders were found to own
only one stock and a further 22 per cent owned just two or
three.
The Mums and Dads Index has changed over the years due to merger
activity - Colonial was acquired by Commonwealth Bank, TAB by
Tabcorp and Coles Myer by Wesfarmers. Today it comprises nine
stocks: AIG, AMP, Commonwealth Bank, Qantas, Suncorp-Metway,
Tabcorp, Telstra, Wesfarmers and Woolworths. Until recently many
were strong performers.
But during 2008, to late June, the index fell 17.4 per cent,
compared with a 15.8 per cent decline for the All Ordinaries index.
Over a 12-month period the figures were 18.2 per cent and 15.6 per
cent respectively. Only two stocks in the index - Wesfarmers and
Telstra - have performed relatively well, although both are still
modestly down for the year. At the other extreme, rising oil prices
mean Qantas has fallen more than 40 per cent.
"The simple explanation for the relatively poor performance is
that the Mums and Dads Index does not include any resource
companies," says Craig James, chief equities economist for
Commonwealth Securities.
"If investors had diversified into some of the resource
companies, the performance of their portfolios would have
improved."
Elio D'Amato, chief executive at the funds management and stock
market information company Lincoln Indicators, sees positives and
negatives in the stocks of the Mums and Dads Index.
"A lot of mum-and-dad investors are exposed to the larger-cap
companies and these have a lot of attractions when you do not
necessarily have the time to be focusing on your share investments
on a daily basis," D'Amato says.
"You get the safety of a broader revenues stream and, generally,
a more stable earnings flow.
"But the one thing I stress is that our business really dislikes
apathy when it comes to investing. Yes, large-cap does give you
more of an element of security but it does not guarantee long-term
share market performance. The fact that you have held a stock for
the past five years or 10 years should not necessarily determine
whether you should continue holding it into the future."
Mike Byrne, large-cap portfolio manager at Souls Funds
Management, agrees some of the large blue chips, including some
that are in the Mums and Dads Index, are looking attractive.
"The situation now is very similar to 1992-93, to 1998-99 and to
2002-03, which was when we had our last economic slowdown," he
says.
"If you look back, what do those periods have in common? They
had dramatic economic slowing, which we have now. They had a
dramatic stockmarket fall, which we are having now.
"And two or three years after the event it turned out that they
were great buying opportunities.
"If you look at the banking sector now, you could be getting a
dividend of around 7.5 per cent, fully franked. That is nearly an
11 per cent gross dividend yield. I do not think I have seen that
too often in my 20 years looking at the Australian market.
"Another thing to talk about when we consider mum-and-dad stocks
is that debt is the enemy. When the party is going, debt is good,
but when the music stops the first chairs to be taken away are the
debt chairs."
Byrne says many of the companies in the Mums and Dads Index have
strong balance sheets, are able to take advantage of some
distressed assets and are also able to continue to reward
shareholders with handsome dividends and dividend growth.
"When we look back in the rear-view mirror in 2009 or 2010 this
will have turned out to be a very good buying opportunity," he
says.
Byrne's recommendations of seven blue chips include four in the
Mums and Dads Index: AMP, Telstra, Wesfarmers and Woolworths, along
with Brambles, Coca-Cola Amatil and QBE.
"Some of these would have dividend yields averaging 5 or 6 per
cent, along with franking. All these companies have the ability to
grow at a rate higher than the inflation rate, which means real
dividend growth."