At the risk of never getting invited to another finance
industry shindig (granted, not really a sacrifice) I have some
controversial advice. When the annual super statement lands in your
letterbox in the next few weeks, don't pore over it, don't despair
of the performance, in fact, don't even read it.
Throw it straight in the bin where rubbish - and rubbish returns
- belongs.
The median balanced fund, the default fund for everyone who
fails to nominate an alternative, looks set to deliver the worst
financial year performance since compulsory super began in 1992:
between negative 6 and 7 per cent, research house SuperRatings
says.
So if you had a super balance of $100,000 at the end of last
year, it will have shrunk to, say, $93,500. And if you had
$200,000, it could now be more like $187,000.
That news makes for grim breakfast reading. But it's crucial you
bear in mind that in the past four years your returns have been in
the vicinity of 15.7 per cent (2006-2007), 14.5 per cent
(2005-2006), 12.9 per cent (2004-2005) and 13.2 per cent
(2003-2004).
Even with the recent slump, this means the median fund has
averaged 11 per cent a year over the past five years and super
balances have correspondingly swelled by 60 per cent.
So it's important to keep it in perspective.
It's also crucial to realise that you have fared far better than
the sharemarket, which since the high in early November is down not
6 or 7 per cent but nearly 30 per cent. Balanced funds invest in
not just shares but also in listed property, fixed interest and
cash - and these other assets have held up returns (see David
Koch's column, page 4, for the outlook for the asset classes
today).
What's more, your particular fund manager may well have
performed better than the median.
But even if they have instead fallen short, now is not the time
to exercise super choice and switch to a manager that has chalked
up higher returns. First of all, by doing so you will be turning
your paper loss into a real-life loss because the manager will have
to sell shares to cash you out.
Second, picking the winners in the past eight or so months has
had very little to do with skill.
Even if funds managed to avoid the high-profile share price
collapses - think Allco Finance, ABC Learning, Centro Properties
Group and, more recently, Babcock & Brown - investor fear has
seen other stocks in those sectors punished indiscriminately.
As a result there are a lot of solid, investment-worthy
companies trading at ludicrously cheap prices. And until debt and
credit markets stabilise, they will probably continue to do so.
So the message is that the past year is not the year on which to
judge your super fund manager. Good managers and bad will have been
caught up in the melee.
Besides, not even in a normal year should you make a call on
that short a time frame. Only by looking over at least three years
- and preferably in different types of conditions - can you
ascertain that you've got a dud fund.
So there really is little point subjecting yourself to the
trauma of opening your superannuation statement when it arrives
this year. Better instead to go to your happy place and stay there
until markets regain their lost ground.
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