While the sharemarket gets its knickers in a knot and
property prices are in the doldrums, one very unlikely investment
is on a roll.
If you'd bought government bonds with a 10-year maturity a month
ago you'd be sitting on a nice little capital gain. And no threat
of a profit downgrade, either.
There haven't been many times when you could not only get a good
yield on a government bond - well above the inflation rate - but a
capital gain as well.
The funny thing is that, while their prices rise and so yields
on 10-year bonds have been falling - with little fanfare, it must
be said, because I've only just noticed - those on cash have been
rising.
If that looks schizophrenic it's because, just as the credit
crunch has gone feral again, they've decided inflation is no longer
a big threat.
As they push in opposite directions the gap between short and
long bond yields is widening, which is a lot more ominous. This
happens when the market is expecting a credit squeeze-induced
recession - the higher shorter rates (of more than 8 per cent) show
money is hard to get while the lower longer rates (10-year bonds
are around 6.3 per cent) suggest the economy is slowing.
For a change the bond and sharemarkets are reading from the same
song sheet. There's no mistaking they expect interest rates to drop
next year.
So this is the time to be locking in these high rates, either in
term deposits, bonds, or so-called hybrids, which are a cross
between shares and bonds.
Although the best term deposit rates (around 8.5 per cent) are
for six months to a year, you could be scratching around for a
decent return when they mature. The yields on longer dated bonds
are lower but there's the prospect of a capital gain if you sell
them before maturity.
Most hybrids have the bonus of franking but are floating, which
isn't much help when rates drop.
Even so, because they have a fixed margin above bank bill rates,
they'll always be comparatively generous.
You can wait for new offers - the ANZ is likely to be next - or
buy them in the sharemarket.
Unfortunately the only hybrid with a fixed rate - and at just
above 11 per cent it's generous - was launched by Macquarie but
bombed in the market because of its lower credit rating.
Its convertible preference shares with a face value of $100 are
trading below $95. Still, that might yet prove to be a bargain.