The sudden U-turn by Transurban, of toll road fame, in
slashing its payout has copped a big fine from the market.
Certainly any infrastructure stock, especially one that owns or
has an interest in most of the Sydney and Melbourne tollways and
faces little natural competition, deserves to have its share price
slashed if it's not paying a good yield/dividend.
But at least it's admitted that it can't go on borrowing more
than it earns to keep up its payout. Distributions will depend on
cashflow from now on.
It's a breakthrough that other infrastructure companies - and,
for that matter, listed property trusts - will be forced to
follow.
Even so, that doesn't alter the fact that Transurban will be
neither a yield nor a growth stock for the foreseeable future.
If it clings on to its written down share price of around $5
then over the next year its diminished distribution will yield an
unimpressive 5 per cent, albeit partly tax deferred.
Since infrastructure stocks trade in line with bonds, its price
would need to drop to just $3.15 to produce a competitive yield of
7 per cent.
Brokers are surprisingly gung-ho about Transurban, which unlike
some toll companies has proved adept at forecasting traffic flows,
and think disappointed investors would have left the stock by
now.
But there's not much growth around to make up for the yield
deficiency especially considering the state of petrol prices.
Still it must be said that while fund managers aren't exactly
falling over themselves to get the stock, the Canadian pension
funds are.
One even paid a premium to the market price in Transurban's
recent rights issue.
So perhaps Transurban is seen elsewhere as a takeover target, a
prospect that would undoubtedly rev up its share price even in this
market.
For its part Transurban sees opportunities overseas and, perhaps
returning the favour, is bidding for a project in Canada.
It also seems to be eyeing off ConnectEast which runs
Melbourne's newly opened Eastlink.
Back home it might grab the troubled Lane Cove tunnel in Sydney.
But it also faces a threat to its M2 from the NSW Government's plan
to build a north-west metro line some time this millennium.
Those shareholders who haven't deserted it will be rewarded with
the chance to buy $5000 of shares at a 2.5 per cent discount.
Frankly for a decent yield you'll get a better short-term return
by sticking your money in an online bank account.
Advanatages
Inflation-proof
Predictable cashflow
Overseas interest
Cutting costs
Disadvantages
High debt
Unknown distributions
Petrol prices
Sluggish outlook
Verdict
Well regarded by brokers for being well run, but will take some
time to restore its credibility with shareholders.