In a world of collapsing share prices and uncertainty about the
outlook for earnings, strong stable dividends are a prized
commodity, provided they are minted from pure gold and not the
fool's variety. With the annual reporting season only weeks away,
fears are mounting that tough economic times will force debt-laden
companies to cut dividends.
Last week, Insurance Australia Group slashed its final dividend
to a "more sustainable" level. And Australia's second-largest
property trust, GPT, lowered its earnings forecast and distribution
guidance by almost a third, triggering a 15 per cent plunge in the
group's share price in one day.
In recent years property and infrastructure trusts, banks and
utilities have been popular with investors seeking income, but each
of these sectors has been under fire in the past six to nine
months. "It's been a dreadful time for income-seeking investors,"
says Paul Zwi, head of equity research at Centric Wealth.
In the United States, 17 out of 20 financial stocks in the
S&P 500 index have cut dividends this year. As the credit
crunch has put the spotlight on financial stocks, the deteriorating
economic outlook has forced companies in the food, entertainment
and telecommunications sectors to reduce dividends.
Zwi says dividend-paying companies are attractive as they
represent cash-in-hand, whereas earnings can be fudged with clever
accounting.
But in recent times it has become clear that dividends can also
be manipulated by paying them out of capital or borrowings and in
that sense they may not be sustainable.
"It's important that dividends are sustainable and, if possible,
growing over time, without weakening [the company's] balance sheet
or future prospects," Zwi says.
This is a sentiment echoed by Lincoln chief executive officer
Elio D'Amato. "You need to make sure a [dividend-paying] company is
growing earnings and is expected to grow earnings in the
future."
Paying dividends to shareholders is only one of four ways
companies deal with the cash generated by their business. They can
also keep the cash to reduce debt, spend it on the business or use
it to buy back shares and thereby reduce capital.
Companies with a history of rewarding shareholders with steady
dividend income face a conundrum. Dividends bring out loyalty in
shareholders but in a market spooked by debt, D'Amato says,
companies may feel pressured to cut dividends and use retained
profits as a cheap form of funding.
D'Amato says a quick scan of ASX listed companies reveals that
242 pay a grossed-up dividend yield greater than the official cash
rate of 7.25 per cent. But only four of those companies have gone
up in price over the past 12 months.
"That old chestnut that dividends protect investors from market
corrections has been proved in the last 12 months [to be] not the
case," D'Amato says.
When times are tough, quality of earnings is all-important, as
Steve Johnson, managing director of the Intelligent Investor,
says.
The attraction of dividends should not be underrated, Johnson
maintains, but it makes sense for some companies to plough earnings
back into the business. However, if a company pays out all its
earnings in dividends and profits fall, then dividends will fall as
well.
Johnson cites Mortgage Choice as an example. It pays out 100 per
cent of its earnings and has a fully franked dividend yield of more
than 16 per cent, but with banks cutting commissions to mortgage
brokers, he thinks the dividend may be under threat.
Johnson expects more dividend cuts in the next 12 months,
especially among property and infrastructure trusts and
retailers.
He says many trusts - and even market stalwarts such as Telstra
- have been borrowing to prop up dividends, which is not
sustainable. However, he thinks Telstra is unlikely to cut
dividends because it should generate enough cash to fund payments
within a year or two.
In recent years, defensive sectors such as property,
infrastructure and utilities have used their steady income streams
to support a highly leveraged structure. But, as debt became more
expensive and scarce, that model no longer worked and their share
prices have tumbled.
GPT made waves last week. High-profile toll group Transurban cut
dividends last month and its share price toppled almost 26 per cent
in June as a result.
Despite the recent carnage, the property trust sector had a
distribution yield of 8.4 per cent at the end of June.
"You can get 8.25 per cent at call so why expose yourself to a
high-risk investment vehicle?" D'Amato says. Even good trusts have
been caught up in the brutal market sell-off and Lincoln continues
to warn clients off the sector. Similarly, bank dividends grew at
double-digit rates in recent years and last week the sector was
trading on a fully franked dividend yield of 7 per cent. The
million-dollar question, Zwi says, is whether that will be
maintained. In his opinion, dividend cuts are possible but not
probable, with bank earnings likely to be sufficient to cover
dividends over the next year or two.
Despite the importance of dividends, recent market events
highlight the dangers of focusing too narrowly on yield as a
defensive strategy.
"Beware the dividend traps," Zwi warns. Sometimes yields can be
artificially boosted by a fall in share price. (Dividend yield is
derived by dividing the dividend by the current share price.) If
the price has fallen because earnings are down or in doubt, it may
be only a matter of time until the dividend is cut too.
For example, Lincoln recently removed employment services
provider Clarius Group from its preferred stock list, despite a
dividend yield of 16.3 per cent fully franked. This looks too good
to be true - and it is. Dig deeper and you find that Clarius's
share price has tumbled on a 23 per cent fall in earnings a
share.
"A more sensible approach [to stock selection] is where you
balance the search for high yields with a search for companies with
a strong balance sheet, a strong franchise, pricing power and
defensive cash flows," Zwi says.
"Woolworths is not a huge dividend payer, with a yield of about
3.8 per cent, but it has a wonderful franchise, a strong balance
sheet, it's superbly managed and it sells consumer staples. If
there's an economic slowdown then a company like Woolworths should
do well."
As well as consistent earnings growth, Lincoln advises income
investors to look for financially healthy companies with low
exposure to debt, a simple and transparent business model and no
bad news on the horizon.
For Money readers, D'Amato has selected eight stocks with a
fully franked dividend yield above 7.25 per cent and a solid
earnings outlook (see box).
"This is a long dark night for share investors," says Zwi, who
believes investors have two choices. You can hide in cash at 7-8
per cent and forget stocks, which is a rational strategy. Or you
can ferret out stocks you want to own over the long term, close
your eyes to the daily and weekly volatility and let the dividends
cover you while you wait for the market to recover.
"But there's no rush to buy. This is a good time to build up a
quality portfolio at reasonable entry prices, but you need to be
patient," he says.