Since last November I've dedicated a number of these
columns to dispelling the myths that Australia could somehow be
insulated from the global credit turmoil which is sending the US
economy into recession and probably the British one as well.
Remember back to the end of last year and the number of
commentators claiming Australia was "de-coupled" from the US and we
would feel few implications of the credit crunch. It was absolute
bunkum.
We are feeling the effects of the global crisis but, as I've
said all along, the Australian economy is in good shape to
withstand the full impact of the downturn.
My fear now is that the pendulum has swung way back to the other
extreme ... from foolish optimism to unreasonable pessimism. It is
a timely reminder that economies are made up of highly emotional,
living, breathing, human beings: you and me.
We sometimes see economic figures as some intangible index
rather than a measurement of how we're all feeling.
That's why I'm concerned with these latest consumer sentiment
and business confidence figures which have plunged to levels
equivalent to the 1990 recession.
The economy has certainly slowed, the sharemarket has crashed
and property slowed but it's nowhere near as bad as the last
recession. Let's put things into perspective:
* the economy contracted 1.7 per cent in the last recession
(this year Australia's GDP will still grow by about 2 per
cent).
* unemployment was 10.8 per cent (about 4.5 per cent this
financial year).
* official interest rates were 18 per cent (7.25 per cent now)
and mortgage rates rose to 17 per cent (9-10 per cent).
* inflation 7.5 per cent (4 per cent)
There is just no comparison between the last recession and
now.
But we "think" it's the same and if we act on that psychology
and go in to our shell then there is the danger it may become a
self-fulfilling prophecy.
I reckon there are a couple of things having a major impact.
Most importantly, we've only recently emerged from a long period
of cheap, freely available money. It wasn't that long ago that we
were hit with a raft of what I called "equity mate" marketing
programs from the banks encouraging us to borrow against our houses
to finance our lifestyles and "max" out our credit cards.
Household debt levels went through the roof which exaggerated
the financial blow of a small lift in interest rates. If you
compare debt levels between now and the last recession, the
financial impact today is probably just as big even though actual
interest rates are still half what they were back then.
Then there's the change in business and consumer expectations.
After 17 consecutive years of positive economic growth we have a
whole generation of consumers and business owners who have never
known an economic slowdown or recession.
For older generations, a recession is when you lose your job,
inflation is rampant and the economy is going backwards.
But now there's a generation who reckon it's a recession when
you can't afford a new plasma TV immediately or when customers cut
back their sales orders.
In the past, tightening the belt was part of a common and
frequent cycle while today it's a new experience for a lot of
Australians.
The crash in the sharemarket has also added to that negative
sentiment. For the last 15 years its been more profitable to invest
in bank shares than in any product offered by a bank to its
customers. Since the start of this year bank shares have dropped 30
per cent and superannuation fund returns are suffering.
Last week's break in the market below 4900 points means there is
a higher risk of continued falls than a significant bounce
back.
While we're hit with the sharemarket's woes every day through
the media we also have that nagging feeling in the backs of our
minds that our house values are starting to weaken as well. Even
though some real estate agents are still trying to put a positive
spin on the property market, our friends and relatives are telling
us how hard it is to sell and how they're having to drop
prices.
The combination of all these factors starts playing with our
minds and the consumer sentiment and business confidence indexes
reflect it.
The reality is that it's a time to be alert, but not
alarmed.