LPTs have lost more than one-third of their value this year.
They're suffering for having gone offshore, borrowed too much,
ventured into areas such as funds management, culminating in the
collapse of Centro Properties and most recently the earnings
downgrade of the venerable GPT.
The valuations behind unlisted property trusts are also in
doubt, though it will take some time before they become official
revaluations.
The signs aren't good for property valued in the past couple of
years.
The value of the Centrelink building in Canberra (pictured
below), last valued a year ago, has been sliced by 15 per cent.
Revaluations of some properties in the listed Commonwealth
Property Office Fund were down by up to 31 per cent, although
others were raised by as much as 6 per cent.
Developer Simon Symond was reported in The Australian Financial
Review as saying: "Overnight, shopping centres dropped tens of
millions (in value)."
Not that the carnage is over for LPTs. So far they've been under
fire for reasons not directly related to the properties they own,
such as the slump in the overall sharemarket, the impact of higher
interest rates on their excessive borrowing, the higher dollar and
rising building costs.
Even the market savaging of GPT after its earnings warning had
more to do with its management and disastrous joint venture foray
into British and European funds management.
Dugald Higgins, associate director of Property Investment
Research, said: "At any one time two-thirds of assets haven't had
an independent valuation that year."
So most properties are still valued at the peak of the price
boom when, in a hot market, they were probably inflated as
well.
Peter Hilton, of Bridges Financial Services, says considering
there was reputedly more than $12 billion of commercial property
assets for sale, "you can probably say at December 31 they won't be
worth the same as then".
Heavily-geared single-property syndicates were most likely to be
affected, he adds: "We aren't a buyer of LPTs at this point.
"Even if this is the bottom, where will the market go? There are
gearing issues that need to be resolved. Some could be close to
their loan covenants."
Peter Ward, LPT sector head at rating agency Standard &
Poor's, says: "The market is re-pricing with a vengeance but it's
too early to tell if this is the bottom."
For all the talk of how much commercial property is on the
market, Martin Hession, of Australian Unity, says there was little
evidence to back it up.
"Only $800 million has been sold to date this year," he
says.
"Valuers can only value on actual sales and the ones we've had
have been good. There's no evidence of prices falling away
dramatically.
"There are low vacancy rates, strong rentals and no looming
over-supply, in fact an under-supply in Brisbane and Perth."
Indeed, this is "a beautiful spot" for a cashed- up unlisted
trust.
There don't appear to be many of those around. Instead, those in
danger of breaching their loan conditions will either have to sell
properties in what is at best a flat market, cut their
distributions, or both.
Higgins says that if anything, unlisted trusts are even more
vulnerable though it may not be as obvious yet. "They tend to have
assets of lesser quality compared with listed trusts," he says.
"Having paid top dollar for secondary assets they'll be much more
in the firing line to a reverse in real estate values."
A big problem for property trusts has been a disposition to pay
distributions from borrowed money. Never prudent, this isn't even
possible now with higher interest rates and a credit crunch. Those
with 50 per cent gearing or more "will have to cut distributions
because of the higher interest costs," Higgins warns.
Because nobody wants to move first, there's no indication of how
far prices could fall in forced asset sales, especially when it
appears some assets have been over-valued in the first place.
"The problems of the unlisted trusts haven't become obvious yet.
They used to out-yield LPTs but none could beat GPT's 10 per
cent."
Higgins tips LPTs will cut their distributions from 20 to 40 per
cent next month.
"We say the cuts will represent buying opportunities," he
said.
But he doesn't expect a sustained recovery until next year or
even later.