Faced with scenes of carnage on the battlefield previously known
as the listed property sector, investors are fleeing real estate
investment trusts exposed to debt and taking cover in cash and
quality REITs until the smoke clears.
After a 10-year bull run and five years of 20 per cent-plus
annual returns, the S&P/ASX 200 Listed Property Accumulation
Index fell 36 per cent in the year to June, compared with a fall of
17 per cent in the broader sharemarket.
Global property is not faring much better, with a 32 per cent
fall last financial year.
At a Morningstar conference last month, Carlos Cocaro of the
boutique property fund manager Renaissance Asset Management
attributed the decline in listed property to growing levels of
volatility, unrealistic property prices and too much risk built
into their strategies for the rewards on offer.
Over the past 10 years, pressure from investors for higher
yields has seen many property groups shifting their focus away from
traditional rental income to property development and funds
management. While this strategy boosted income, it also resulted in
higher levels of debt.
When global credit dried up last year, highly leveraged REITs
were unable to refinance short-term debt and their high-risk
strategies unravelled.
As is often the case when an entire market sector is dumped, the
flight from listed property was triggered by one company's fall
from grace. Even professional fund managers were caught off guard
by the revelation that Centro Properties Group was unable to
refinance its debt and the retribution has been merciless.
Centro shares fell 97 per cent in the year to June and REITs
with high debt and exposure to development and funds management
have also been targeted. A wave of earnings downgrades and
distribution cuts over the past month has exacerbated the
sell-off.
Australia's second-largest property trust, GPT Group, recently
downgraded its earnings for the year to December by almost a third
and cut its final distribution. Property market analysts are
anxiously reviewing the sector, with some convinced Centro is on
the brink of bankruptcy.
Ratings agency Moody's has announced it is reviewing GPT and
Macquarie Prime REIT for possible ratings downgrades. This follows
GPT's earnings downgrade and uncertainty about Macquarie Prime's
asset profile, ownership structure and debt refinancing issues.
At the other end of the scale, larger, high-quality companies
with a traditional emphasis on rental income have been treated more
kindly. Westfield Group, the largest company in the index at just
over 40 per cent, fell just 13 per cent in the 12 months to
June.
Renaissance director Damien Barrack believes the current
bloodbath will ultimately be positive for the sector. "The
cleansing of the decks has begun. What's left will be a cleaner,
healthier sector," he says.
Barrack also points out that listed property mostly responds
more quickly to market conditions than the physical property market
and tends to overreact.
In a recent review of the property securities fund sector,
research house Lonsec concluded: "Investors should remain cautious
and focus on the plain vanilla property trusts that have a bias to
Australian property, high occupancy, mostly rental income,
reasonable levels of gearing and manageable lease and debt maturity
profiles."
Barrack agrees. He says the groups performing well now are
low-geared, with quality assets such as Westfield and Colonial
First State Retail Property Trust. Both have quality shopping
centres with a ratio of debt to assets below 40 per cent.
The only bright spot for investors is that plunging share prices
have made the yields on REITs even more attractive than usual. The
sector is yielding more than 9 per cent, compared with 7-9 per cent
for cash investments and the 6.4 per cent yield on a 10-year
government bond.
Colonial First State's head of investment market research, Hans
Kunnen, says this difference in yield, combined with continuing
growth in the economy, may provide some support for the sector over
the remainder of 2008.
However, there is also general agreement that current yields are
unsustainable.
Barrack points out that at the listed property sector's peak,
yields got down to 5.5 per cent (the higher the unit price, the
lower the yield), compared with their traditional yields of 7-8 per
cent. He says the current wave of earnings downgrades and cuts to
payout ratios will mean a return to healthier yields.
In its annual sector review, Lonsec awarded only two of the 18
funds it covers with its highest rating.
The UBS Property Securities Fund was highly recommended despite
the pounding it took for its exposure to Centro. Lonsec analyst
Paul Pavlidis said the UBS fund was rated highly for its strong
management team, bottom-up approach to stock selection and active
management style, which allows it to stray further from the index
weighting than most.
This last point is important when one stock - Westfield -
dominates the sector because there will be times when there are
better opportunities elsewhere. Last February, the 18 funds
reviewed by Lonsec held an average of 28.2 per cent of their
portfolio in Westfield.
Partly for this reason, Lonsec upgraded Vanguard's Property
Securities Index Fund to highly recommended. Pavlidis says it makes
little sense to pay the higher fees charged by non-index funds when
most of them passively hold all stocks in the sector at or near
their index weighting. He believes the Vanguard fund performs a
similar function for a lower fee and is very efficiently run.
Most market analysts believe there is more bad news to come from
the sector and are anxiously awaiting the profit reporting season,
which gets under way next month.
For this reason, Barrack believes it's too early to say if the
sector has hit rock-bottom. "Over the next 6-12 months, we expect
more volatility," he says.
Longer term, Barrack sees opportunities developing in oversold
stocks. There are some vehicles in the sector where very high
yields are a serious issue but there are others where
sustainability as a vehicle is not in doubt but they have been
overly penalised.
"Analysis of previous downturns shows that the bounce back is
often high. For example, if a stock falls 30 per cent it can bounce
back 20 per cent," he says.
Over the long term, Lonsec expects REITs will deliver total
returns of 8-10 per cent a year. Perhaps then the sector can
reclaim its reputation as a source of stable income streams.