Although quick to promise they won't cut their dividends, that's
small comfort when they're raising new equity head over heels with
hybrids and underwritten dividends, which will dilute the share
price. The excuse is they're so overwhelmed by potential borrowers
that they need more to lend. Really?
The rate of credit expansion in the June quarter was one -third
of a year ago, Reserve Bank figures show. Instead of lending maybe
they're having a lend of us. You can't rule out rights issues next
year, despite the banks' denials. Remember, that's what they said
about holding sub-prime mortgages.
Meanwhile NAB has been praised by analysts for writing off
90percent of its collateralised debt obligations - more like
collateralised damage offensives but CDOs will do - when, in truth,
it had no choice.
Under mark-to-market accounting rules - where such niceties as
whether a loan really is in default are less relevant than whether
you can flog it to somebody else - if there's no buyer, an asset is
worthless. By the way, CDOs didn't pop up until as late as May.
In the 85-page analysts' briefing at the half-yearly results
there was a passing reference to "external conduits" when it made a
ridiculously low provision for them. Somehow the dud CDOs slipped
by even though they were supposedly worth as much as its entire
wages bill.
Worse, there's an unlucky dip of another $4.5 billion of CDOs
described as "primarily northern hemisphere assets." Oh dear.
ANZ waited even longer to come clean although at least it
mentioned monoline insurers - don't ask - and wrote off $980million
in February.
All well and bad, but the banks have barely got around to adding
up the likely bad debts from the economic slowdown, especially the
housing slump. At least the market has.