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Market is right to slash banks

David Potts | August 6 2008 | The Sydney Morning Herald & The Age (subscribe)

Although quick to promise they won't cut their dividends, that's small comfort when they're raising new equity head over heels with hybrids and underwritten dividends, which will dilute the share price. The excuse is they're so overwhelmed by potential borrowers that they need more to lend. Really?

The rate of credit expansion in the June quarter was one -third of a year ago, Reserve Bank figures show. Instead of lending maybe they're having a lend of us. You can't rule out rights issues next year, despite the banks' denials. Remember, that's what they said about holding sub-prime mortgages.

Meanwhile NAB has been praised by analysts for writing off 90percent of its collateralised debt obligations - more like collateralised damage offensives but CDOs will do - when, in truth, it had no choice.

Under mark-to-market accounting rules - where such niceties as whether a loan really is in default are less relevant than whether you can flog it to somebody else - if there's no buyer, an asset is worthless. By the way, CDOs didn't pop up until as late as May.

In the 85-page analysts' briefing at the half-yearly results there was a passing reference to "external conduits" when it made a ridiculously low provision for them. Somehow the dud CDOs slipped by even though they were supposedly worth as much as its entire wages bill.

Worse, there's an unlucky dip of another $4.5 billion of CDOs described as "primarily northern hemisphere assets." Oh dear.

ANZ waited even longer to come clean although at least it mentioned monoline insurers - don't ask - and wrote off $980million in February.

All well and bad, but the banks have barely got around to adding up the likely bad debts from the economic slowdown, especially the housing slump. At least the market has.

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