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Why prices should fall too

David Koch | August 13 2008 | The Sydney Morning Herald & The Age (subscribe)

The impact of falling global oil prices and official interest rates is set to grab the attention of consumers over the next couple of months.

The oil price has fallen from its peak of close to $US150 a barrel to less than $US120 over the last few weeks and most of the media's attention has focused on whether the big oil companies have passed on the benefit to motorists at the pump.

But my interest is in the broader business community, which lifted prices using the rise in petrol prices as their excuse.

One of the main reasons the consumer price index is so much higher than the Reserve Bank's target range is because of food and petrol price rises. It's not just the rise in the pump price, but also the ripple effect of how it's been passed through in other general rises. Everything from fuel surcharges on airline tickets to manufactured goods and my dad's pool man, who added $5 a visit to a service because of the petrol price. It seemed like everyone was using petrol as an excuse to bump up prices.

While the oil companies need to be held accountable for passing on the full drop in the oil price to motorists, these other businesses also need to be held accountable. Now that oil prices are down significantly and expected to drop further, the price rises of the last few months should theoretically be reversed.

But I have a sneaking feeling many will hope customers have short memories and simply be happy with relief at the bowser. It will be interesting to see whether consumer power helps keep business honest in this area.

A number of independent research reports have proved oil companies are quick to pass on global oil price rises but slow to pass on the benefits from falls. Now we need those studies to be broadened.

Banks will hopefully be in a similar position. The prospect of a cut in official interest rates next month has seen bank shares make a dramatic turnaround after being smashed over the last month. It was only a matter of time.

When dividend yields of the big four banks were running at an unprecedented 11-13 per cent, smart investors naturally started to move in and mop up the bargains.

While the economy is rapidly slowing, it's ironic the big banks are set to be a major winner and reap the rewards for years to come.

It has been well documented the banks have been caught up in the global credit crunch through their exposure to the US mortgage market and the premium they've had to pay to raise funds from the wholesale money market.

They've been passing through rate rises to customers in excess of the RBA's official increases because they claim the premium they pay for the cost of funds has jumped from 0.1 per cent to half a per cent. They've answered the criticism by throwing up their hands and saying they're just reacting to the market.

The banks are now even preparing us for the possibility that they may not pass on the full benefit of any official interest cuts for the same reason. While I can understand the argument of the banks, it's getting to the stage that it won't wash any further. I can't help but get the feeling the banks have now been adequately compensated for the pricing shift in credit markets and any further fudging is more likely to be used to offset the whopping losses on their exposure to US mortgages. We should be asking why customers have to subsidise disastrous management decisions.

With the banks set to be big winners from the fallout of the credit crunch and the slowing economy, it's time they stopped crying poor.

The big four banks have never been stronger. As expected, the credit crunch has sent many of the non-bank lenders to the wall or forced them into a merger. Non-bank lenders have been hit with a double whammy where their source of funds has dried up and customers have fled to the safety of the big banks.

Sure, a slowing economy may lift bad debt provisions but generally Australian borrowers are good payers. I know a couple of economists are now predicting a hard recession but I'm yet to be convinced. The Federal Government and Reserve Bank have plenty of room to move to prevent this happening.

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