The impact of falling global oil prices and official
interest rates is set to grab the attention of consumers over the
next couple of months.
The oil price has fallen from its peak of close to $US150 a
barrel to less than $US120 over the last few weeks and most of the
media's attention has focused on whether the big oil companies have
passed on the benefit to motorists at the pump.
But my interest is in the broader business community, which
lifted prices using the rise in petrol prices as their excuse.
One of the main reasons the consumer price index is so much
higher than the Reserve Bank's target range is because of food and
petrol price rises. It's not just the rise in the pump price, but
also the ripple effect of how it's been passed through in other
general rises. Everything from fuel surcharges on airline tickets
to manufactured goods and my dad's pool man, who added $5 a visit
to a service because of the petrol price. It seemed like everyone
was using petrol as an excuse to bump up prices.
While the oil companies need to be held accountable for passing
on the full drop in the oil price to motorists, these other
businesses also need to be held accountable. Now that oil prices
are down significantly and expected to drop further, the price
rises of the last few months should theoretically be reversed.
But I have a sneaking feeling many will hope customers have
short memories and simply be happy with relief at the bowser. It
will be interesting to see whether consumer power helps keep
business honest in this area.
A number of independent research reports have proved oil
companies are quick to pass on global oil price rises but slow to
pass on the benefits from falls. Now we need those studies to be
broadened.
Banks will hopefully be in a similar position. The prospect of a
cut in official interest rates next month has seen bank shares make
a dramatic turnaround after being smashed over the last month. It
was only a matter of time.
When dividend yields of the big four banks were running at an
unprecedented 11-13 per cent, smart investors naturally started to
move in and mop up the bargains.
While the economy is rapidly slowing, it's ironic the big banks
are set to be a major winner and reap the rewards for years to
come.
It has been well documented the banks have been caught up in the
global credit crunch through their exposure to the US mortgage
market and the premium they've had to pay to raise funds from the
wholesale money market.
They've been passing through rate rises to customers in excess
of the RBA's official increases because they claim the premium they
pay for the cost of funds has jumped from 0.1 per cent to half a
per cent. They've answered the criticism by throwing up their hands
and saying they're just reacting to the market.
The banks are now even preparing us for the possibility that
they may not pass on the full benefit of any official interest cuts
for the same reason. While I can understand the argument of the
banks, it's getting to the stage that it won't wash any further. I
can't help but get the feeling the banks have now been adequately
compensated for the pricing shift in credit markets and any further
fudging is more likely to be used to offset the whopping losses on
their exposure to US mortgages. We should be asking why customers
have to subsidise disastrous management decisions.
With the banks set to be big winners from the fallout of the
credit crunch and the slowing economy, it's time they stopped
crying poor.
The big four banks have never been stronger. As expected, the
credit crunch has sent many of the non-bank lenders to the wall or
forced them into a merger. Non-bank lenders have been hit with a
double whammy where their source of funds has dried up and
customers have fled to the safety of the big banks.
Sure, a slowing economy may lift bad debt provisions but
generally Australian borrowers are good payers. I know a couple of
economists are now predicting a hard recession but I'm yet to be
convinced. The Federal Government and Reserve Bank have plenty of
room to move to prevent this happening.