Worried about the falling sharemarket? Scared to put your money
anywhere but under the bed? Or are your investments bearing bitter,
rather than juicy, fruit? The slowing economy has everyone scared,
not least of all investors in the sharemarket. In such an
environment, investors should consider companies that have the
capacity to pay strong dividends. And they are out there. Trust
us.
Share prices should reflect a company's earnings history and its
future earnings outlook. But this is not always the case. When
shares are beaten down to within an inch of their lives, chances
are that their prices are no longer a true indication of their
earnings potential.
In these conditions, companies that maintain a creditable return
on equity are generally those that provide investors with an
attractive dividend yield. With term deposit rates hovering in the
8 to 9percent range, a yield of 10percent or more is good for
investors looking to keep some funds in the sharemarket. The
medium- to long-term investor also has the potential to benefit
from share-price rises as market conditions improve.
Factors to look for when trying to find high-yielding companies
- especially in a slowing economic environment - are a strong
balance sheet, expenditure on capital to keep the company going and
the ability to maintain cash flow - that is, revenue.
Here are seven companies with 2008-09 forecast dividends that
represent yields ranging from 11 to 14.2percent relative to their
share prices as at August 1, 2008.
Happy picking.
Adcorp Australia
While media stocks have generally been abandoned in the past six
months there are features of Adcorp's business that set it apart
from most of its peers. New management has restructured the company
and strengthened its position to make it more relevant in the
advertising market. Its traditional automotive advertising business
has, for the most part, been shelved.
The increase in its share price in July - that could well have
resulted from yield-seeking investors - defied the general market
trend. Adcorp's dividend of five cents in 2007-08 is expected to be
maintained in 2008-09, representing a yield of about 12percent.
Adcorp is now focused on internet-based solutions and increasing
its presence in the retail advertising market; its acquisition of
Andrews Advertising has boosted its earnings from this sector. With
the launch of Kelly Street Digital, Adcorp has also entered the
digital advertising market.
Earnings guidance provided in February proved to be on the mark
when Adcorp reported a strong 2007-08 result - employment marketing
and consultancy services accounted for 69percent of its sales in
the first half of the year.
Unlike recruitment companies, Adcorp's consultancy role is a
more stable, less competitive, higher-margin business. The
company's operations are generating strong cash flows, it is
debt-free and it has substantial franking credits. Its management
has indicated that the company is poised for further growth in
2008-09, suggesting that one of the highest-yielding companies in
the micro-cap (that is, stocks with a very small market
capitalisation) sector can continue delivering strong yields,
perhaps providing a platform for share-price appreciation.
Clarius group
Clarius Group is a provider of contract and recruitment services
to corporate and government organisations in the Asia-Pacific
region and also has offices in China, Hong Kong, Malaysia and
Singapore.
While the underperformance of Clarius's Lloyd Morgan Australia
recruitment business, combined with $1.1million in restructuring
costs, will result in a decline in profit in 2007-08, the company
is expected to be back on track in 2008-09.
In any case, the fact that Clarius's share price has more than
halved due to an anticipated fall in earnings appears to be an
over-reaction.
Consensus forecasts are in line with management's guidance of
earnings of about 21cents a share and a dividend of 18cents,
representing a price-earnings ratio of about 6.5 and a yield of
13percent.
While 2008-09 is likely to be a year of consolidation and
nominal earnings growth, Clarius's strong balance sheet should
support the payment of a similar-sized dividend. With low debt
levels, Clarius could also acquire bolt-on businesses that would
improve its growth profile.
The company has weathered the tech-wreck and other periods of
volatility, recording a profit and paying a dividend every year
since listing on the Australian Stock Exchange in 1997.
Dexion
Dexion is another hard-hit micro-cap manufacturing company, with
its stock having fallen from about $3 in 2007 to a recent low of
95cents.
While its share price has recovered slightly in recent weeks, it
remains a poor measure of the company's performance and its yield
prospects. Dexion reports on a calendar-year basis and after
recording profit growth of 20percent for the 12 months to December
31, 2007 there is no reason to suggest that the company will
disappoint in 2008.
Management has not wavered from its net profit guidance of
$14million for 2008 and this is consistent with analyst's earnings
per share forecasts of 21.5cents a year.
This represents growth of about 20percent, a level that seems
achievable based on the company's international expansion, the
integration of acquisitions and increased production capacity from
its new manufacturing facility in Malaysia.
With a P/E ratio of about five and a dividend yield of more than
10percent, this one's worth watching.
DWS Advanced Business Solutions
Analysts at Bell Potter Research believe the information
technology services sector may be a reasonably safe haven in a
slowing economic environment.
While it has been a strong supporter of DWS, analyst's
downgraded earnings estimates for 2007-08 and 2008-09 following the
company's profit downgrade in June.
But Bell Potter maintains its buy rating and has a 12-month
price target of $1.60 on the stock, about 70percent above its
recent trading range. Though earnings downgrades aren't good news,
the sell-off following the release of DWS's revised guidance
appears overdone.
After a significant reduction in earnings per share and dividend
estimates for 2008-09, DWS's current share price reflects a P/E
ratio of about six and a yield of about 13percent. Not
surprisingly, DWS has a share buyback program in progress, making
the most of its depressed share price.
After 17 consecutive years of growth, DWS listed on the ASX in
2006. Since then the company has made three important acquisitions
and expanded its east coast presence in Australia.
DWS derives revenue from a broad range of industries, providing
consultancy services to other information, communication and
telecommunications businesses as well as directly dealing with
financial institutions and government bodies.
Revenue from the government sector is expected to increase in
2008-09 following the $8.3million acquisition of Strategic Data
Management last December. SDM is well represented in DWS's
traditional markets in Melbourne and Sydney and its strong presence
in Canberra and Adelaide should prove to be strategically
important.
IT initiatives are now seen as a business enabler rather than
the cost of trying to keep up and this mentality is expected to
drive investment of more than $12billion a year in IT services
until 2010.
Peoplebank Australia
Peoplebank Australia is another company that appears to have
been unfairly battered with its share price falling from $1.10 six
months ago to a recent low of 50cents.
Management's revised guidance in July indicated that one-off
integration costs relating to the company's December 2007
acquisition of Ambit Recruitment would have an impact on its
earnings. Analysts subsequently downgraded earnings estimates for
2007-08 and 2008-09, and the company's recent trading range now
represents P/E ratios of 5.9 and 4.4 respectively, suggesting that
the decline in earnings is fully reflected in Peoplebank's share
price.
From a yield perspective, Peoplebank remains one of the top
stocks among emerging companies with its prospective dividend in
2008-09 representing a return of about 14percent. Also, the company
is strongly leveraged to the growing demand for IT services and,
more specifically, has the staff to integrate and manage new and
existing systems. Peoplebank says it has the largest IT contractor
database in Australia where the industry is growing at 12 to
15percent a year. A skills shortage, exacerbated by the exit of
ageing in-house IT specialists, is expected to result in the
continuation of outsourcing by the industry.
The company has a talent pool of 200,000 candidates and services
the corporate and government sectors on a 3:1 basis. Its clients
include Telstra, Coles, Centrelink and three major banks.
Reverse Corp
While Reverse Corp may not be an exciting high-growth company,
for yield-seekers its business model and fundamentals are
impressive. As the leading provider of reverse charges telephone
calls in Australia and Britain, the company has cornered a small
but niche market.
Reverse Corp owns and operates the 1800-REVERSE and 0800-REVERSE
reverse charges calling services, the latter applying to calls from
Britain.
The company strengthened its position in that region in June
when it negotiated an agreement with leading Irish
telecommunications carrier, Eircom. The agreement will enable
Reverse Corp to launch a service in Ireland by September that will
enable reverse charges calls to be made from all fixed and mobile
phones, including out-of-credit prepaid mobile phones.
Reverse charge calls is a consumer market that should withstand
economic pressures, as call recipients rarely reject a call. The
service is used regularly by the 18 to 25 demographic to
communicate with family.
WATPAC
While the share prices of property trusts and other companies
with exposure to property development have fallen substantially,
the sector can't be ignored. There are stocks that have highly
promising outlooks and sturdy balance sheets that have been lumped
in with the bad-news stories.
Construction and property development company Watpac's
fundamentals speak for themselves. Its P/E ratio relative to
2007-08 forecasts is about six and with a yield of about 13percent
in 2008-09, the company is likely to come under the radar of
investors looking for value.
Watpac's pipeline of construction and development projects
valued at more than $1billion are in resilient markets and
high-growth areas, particularly in Queensland and the company has a
good mix of government, commercial and residential projects
underway.
In July, Bell Potter rated Watpac as one of its stock picks in
the emerging industrials sector, commenting that the company is not
typically exposed to refinancing risk and that its conservative
practice of gearing property projects to 65percent worked in its
favour. Bell Potter has a 12-month price target of $3.68 on Watpac,
double the company's recent trading range.
Adding further spice to Watpac's story is its acquisition this
month of JMS Civil and Mining Group, a business expected to
generate about $120million in revenue in 2008-09. JMS is a
fourth-generation mining, civil engineering and infrastructure
development company that has long-established relationships with
government clients and blue-chip corporate customers such as Rio
Tinto and Xstrata.
The JMS acquisition will boost earnings growth in 2008-09 from
current estimates of about 16percent. It will also provide Watpac
with an important presence in regions and industry sectors where it
hasn't previously been represented.
Strip tease
Some investors choose to buy shares before qualifying for the
dividend and sell after that period when the stock goes
"ex-dividend". This strategy - known as dividend stripping - is
more likely to work in a bullish market where momentum is such that
share prices do not decline in line with the dividend payment.
All things being equal, dividend stripping should not work, as
the earnings from the dividend are lost when the shares are sold.
But in a bearish market, the consequences can be far worse as mob
mentality exacerbates the degree of negative share price
momentum.
Company ASX code Share Price Forecast 2008-09 Yield%
as at 1/8/08 dividend
Adcorp AAU $0.43 $0.05 11.6
Clarius Group CND $1.41 $0.18 12.8
Dexion DEX $1.00 $0.11 11.0
DWS Advanced DWS $0.92 $0.12 13.0
Peoplebank PBA $0.55 $0.08 14.2
Reverse Corp REF $1.79 $0.21 11.7
Watpac WTP $1.87 $0.24 13.1
1. 2008-09 dividend estimates are a median average of analysts??? forecasts. 2. Yield represents the percentage
return that would be achieved based on share prices and consensus dividend forecasts as at August 1, 2008.